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Predicting Hypoxia and Ocean Acidification of the coastal waters of the CCS: What do we know and what can we expect?

  • 112 O&M Building, Texas A&M University (map)

Abstract

Predictions of ocean acidification and hypoxia were incorporated into the IPCC report for the first time recently, and forecasts on shorter time scales have now been developed in the California Current System.  High resolution hindcast models capable of simulating hypoxia and ocean acidification events exist and provide the foundation for forecasting efforts.  One such forecast system (J-SCOPE) focuses on seasonal timescales for the ocean ecosystem on the Washington and Oregon shelves. J-SCOPE is a product of the combination of a regional oxygen model and large-scale predictions from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (CFS). Results suggest J-SCOPE forecasts have skill on timescales of a few months. Despite these developments, the limits of the predictability of biogeochemical quantities are still the subject of debate. Through comparisons of model hindcasts and re-forecasts for 2009 and 2013 with local observations, predictive capabilities will be examined for SST, oxygen, and pH.  Challenges in forecasting on seasonal and other timescales in the coastal environment will also be discussed.